Tesla CEO Elon Musk Says Inflation Has Peaked — But We'll Have a Recession for 18 Months

Tesla CEO Elon Musk believes inflation has peaked and the U.S. economy will be in a recession for about 18 months. “We do get a fair bit of insight into where prices of things are going over time,” the billionaire explained, noting that “inflation is going to drop rapidly.”

Elon Musk Explains Why He Thinks Inflation Has Peaked and Recession Will Last 18 Months

Tesla and Spacex CEO Elon Musk shared his view on the U.S. economy, inflation, and recession during Tesla’s 2022 annual meeting of stockholders Thursday.

Replying to a question about inflation, he explained: “We do get a fair bit of insight into where prices of things are going over time because when you’re making millions of cars, you have to purchase commodities many months in advance of when they’re needed … Because it’s a long supply chain with a tremendous amount of inertia, so we sort of have some insight into where prices are headed over time.”

Musk detailed: “The interesting thing that we’re seeing now is that most of our commodities, most of the things that go into a Tesla — not all, but more than half — the prices are trending down in six months, six months from now.” He added:

The trend is down which suggests that we are past peak inflation.

However, Musk noted: “Making macroeconomic prognostications is a recipe for disaster but my guess is that we are past peak inflation and that we will have a recession. I think it will be a relatively mild recession but I’m just guessing here.”

Emphasizing that his view is “total speculation,” he opined:

Our guess is that it’s a mild recession for 18 months or something like that, would be my best guess right now.

He explained: “We don’t have fundamental capital misallocations in the U.S. as we have had in the past, like leading up to 2008 where we were building primary housing units at twice the rate of household formation which obviously doesn’t make sense. A lot of companies were over-levered.”

Musk concluded: “The leverage or debt that companies have right now is relatively low so I would say probably, you know, mild, moderate recession, maybe 18 months-ish, and I think inflation is going to drop rapidly. That’s my guess.”

The Tesla CEO’s remarks during the shareholders’ meeting echoed the tweets he made on July 28. He wrote at the time: “Inflation might be trending down … More Tesla commodity prices are trending down than up.”

Musk began talking about the U.S. economy going into a recession a few months ago after revealing in March that both Tesla and Spacex saw significant inflation pressure.

“We probably are in a recession and that recession will get worse but these things pass and then there will be boom times again … It’ll probably be some tough going for, I don’t know, a year, maybe 12-18 months,” he said in May.

He subsequently said that a recession “is actually a good thing” for the U.S. economy, adding: “It has been raining money on fools for too long. Some bankruptcies need to happen.”